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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, with shipping diverting to routes around the Cape of Good Hope and via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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Throughput at the Suez Canal has fallen while Gulf ports including Jebel Ali Port and King Abdulaziz Port, Dammam face rising congestion and delays.
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A tanker reportedly crossed Hormuz with tracking disabled, as China deployed the surveillance vessel Liaowang-1 to the Gulf of Oman.
On Sunday, 8 March, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reached its lowest levels of only two outbound transits and no inbound crossings, according to Windward Maritime Intelligence. Both of these vessels were Iranian-flagged.
Simultaneously, across Africa, shippers are taking advantage of alternative routes – particularly in the Cape of Good Hope, where transits surged to 89 crossings (47 eastbound, 42 westbound), representing an 89.36% increase compared with the previous day; this also sits above the 7-day average of 78.14 crossings.
Similarly, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea remained active at 30 crossings (14 inbound, 16 outbound). This stands as evidence of a redistribution of marine traffic across alternative routes, rather than a disappearance.
Windward also highlights that Suez Canal traffic declined by 27.91% compared with the previous day, with a total of 31 crossings recorded (11 inbound, 20 outbound). It’s unclear whether a decline in Suez traffic reflects a spillover from Hormuz volatility or a more sustained structural change.
Gulf port infrastructure is also showing signs of strain. Jebel Ali in the UAE recorded a 233% day-on-day rise in transshipment delay cases, and Dammam in Saudi Arabia logged a 400% increase. Operational exceptions were also recorded at ports in Kuwait and southern Iraq. Congestion is likely to exacerbate the logistical difficulties for operators already contending with rerouted voyages: which add two to three weeks to typical transit times from the Gulf to European and North American destinations.
Vessels go dark
There has also emerged evidence of operators attempting to exploit the closure. A tanker carrying approximately 1 million barrels of Saudi crude oil, loaded at the Juaymah terminal in early March, appears to have transited the Strait of Hormuz with its automatic identification system (AIS) deliberately disabled; its transponder was reactivated roughly 100 nautical miles off India’s west coast, with Mumbai listed as its destination.
The vessel went dark for approximately five days, disappearing from tracking systems around March 4 and reappearing on Sunday morning. If confirmed, the voyage, in essence, would represent an operator willing to traverse the strait without AIS visibility, presumably to capture the highly elevated freight premiums currently available on Gulf crude cargoes.
China positions a surveillance vessel
On Sunday, reports surfaced that China had deployed the Liaowang-1, a 30,000-tonne signals intelligence vessel, to the Gulf of Oman, escorted by surface combatants from the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
The vessel stands as a maritime surveillance platform within direct observation range of the active conflict zone, reflecting Beijing’s concern about a disruption to energy supplies. Between 1 March and 8 March, 10% of all traffic was China-linked, as is clear in ‘identity broadcast’ tactics. That is to say, vessels owned by Chinese shipowners or ship management companies made sure to broadcast “Chinese owner and crew” when passing through Hormuz, to avoid the Iran-declared targeting of US and Israeli vessels.
