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- Animal diseases could inflict a $100 trillion blow to the global economy by 2050 unless urgent action is taken to combat antimicrobial resistance, according to the first comprehensive global animal health report released by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).
- The stark warning comes as trade disruptions from disease outbreaks intensify worldwide.
Brazil’s first-ever bird flu outbreak in domestic poultry triggered immediate export bans from multiple countries and highlighted the fragility of international food supply chains.
The report reveals that antimicrobial resistance (AMR)—when disease-causing pathogens develop immunity to drugs—threatens the food security of 2 billion people while potentially crippling agricultural trade flows that underpin global commerce. Antimicrobial use in animals fell 5% between 2020 and 2022, with Europe leading the decline at 23%, followed by Africa at 20%, yet progress remains insufficient.
“The indiscriminate use of antimicrobials contributes to antimicrobial resistance, which is a major threat to both animal and human health,” said Javier Yugueros-Marcos, head of the antimicrobial resistance department at WOAH.
Trade barriers mount in response to HPAI
Trade restrictions have become the default response to disease outbreaks. Brazil, the world’s largest poultry exporter, faces a cascade of import bans following confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in domestic birds — the country’s first such outbreak.
Over the past two decades, more than 633 million birds have been lost to bird flu, causing billions in economic damage and severely disrupting international trade flows. In 2024 alone, 42 countries reported new outbreaks in poultry, with 943 poultry outbreaks recorded alongside 2,570 outbreaks in non-poultry species.
The scale is staggering: 6.18 million poultry cases resulted in 82.1 million poultry losses, while wild birds suffered 11,866 cases.
The disease has now spread beyond poultry to infect mammals at an alarming rate, with 1,022 mammal outbreaks recorded in 2024 — more than double the 459 outbreaks in 2023. The United States alone reported 926 outbreaks in cattle, following the first dairy cattle infection in March 2024.
“HPAI outbreaks not only devastate animal populations but also trigger strict trade restrictions, severely disrupting global poultry markets,” the report reads. “Many countries impose import bans on affected regions, causing economic instability for poultry-exporting nations.”
Producers lose access to key international markets, whilst importing countries struggle with supply shortages, forcing them to seek alternative sources at higher costs. For consumers, particularly in low-income populations where poultry serves as a primary protein source, prices rise sharply.
Regional disease patterns highlight trade vulnerabilities
Between January 2024 and April 2025, peste des petits ruminants triggered 165 outbreaks across nine countries. Greece reported 86 outbreaks affecting over 5,317 cases, and Romania reported 68 outbreaks affecting more than 226,829 cases; both countries had been free from the disease for at least 25 years.
In aquaculture, infectious salmon anaemia continues to threaten the $19.9 billion global Atlantic salmon market, with vaccination programmes proving critical for maintaining export access.
Thailand’s dairy sector provides a stark example of localised impact. A cooperative suffered milk losses of 127 tonnes valued at $68,943 in just three months due to lumpy skin disease, with average losses per affected farm reaching $2,461.
Meanwhile, India’s massive dairy industry—home to over 300 million cattle and buffaloes and is the world’s largest milk producer—faces particular vulnerability, with an estimated 7% of dairy cattle infected with tuberculosis.
Vaccination for healthy trade
The report advocates for vaccination programmes as a pathway to maintaining trade whilst controlling disease outbreaks. France’s pioneering nationwide duck vaccination campaign has demonstrated the potential, cutting bird flu outbreaks from over 300 to just 10 within a year. Mathematical modelling from Toulouse Veterinary School estimated up to 700 potential outbreaks due to wild bird exposure, yet France suffered only 10 — a 98.6% reduction.
The US and Canada eased their ban on French poultry imports in January, citing good traceability and monitoring — a development that could reshape international attitudes towards vaccination as a trade-compatible disease control measure.
“Vaccination is a tool, it’s a very good tool when it exists, but it’s up to each country, region, or group of countries to identify in which case it will be useful,” said WOAH Director General Emmanuelle Soubeyran.
The key breakthrough lies in the ‘DIVA principle’ — differentiating infected from vaccinated animals — which allows countries to maintain surveillance integrity whilst reassuring trading partners that vaccinated animals pose no undetected disease risk.
Economic benefits of prevention
The report estimates that if farmers worldwide reduced antibiotic use by 30% through improved hygiene, vaccination, and biosecurity measures, the global economy could gain $120 billion by 2050.
Trade implications vary significantly by disease and region. Foot and mouth disease alone costs between $6.5 billion and $21 billion annually in endemic regions, with additional losses exceeding $1.5 billion when outbreaks occur in previously free zones. The disease particularly restricts world trade from south to north, with infected countries facing total embargoes on live animal and fresh meat exports.
South American countries that achieved foot and mouth disease-free status have seen substantial economic gains, particularly in beef exports, with new market access opportunities and sustained maintenance of trade relationships over time.
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The trade policy response has been substantial: between 1995 and 2023, 162 trade concerns were raised to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) committee on sanitary and phytosanitary measures, with 88% associated with terrestrial animal standards. Avian influenza dominated discussions, accounting for 62.5% of SPS notifications between 2007 and 2023, though 97% of new regulations complied with existing international standards.
Progress on zoning and compartmentalisation — tools that help maintain trade during outbreaks — shows encouraging trends.
- Countries using zoning as a disease control measure increased from 40% of affected members in 2005 to 67% in 2021.
- Compartmentalisation adoption rose more modestly, from 1% in 2017 to 8% in 2021 for terrestrial diseases
- Over the same period, compartmentalisation adoption for aquatic diseases rose from 4% to 23%.
As global agricultural demand is expected to soar by 70% to feed a projected 9.1 billion people by 2050, the stakes for maintaining open trade channels whilst controlling disease outbreaks have never been higher. The report emphasises that vaccination programmes must be accompanied by robust surveillance systems, transparent data sharing, and adherence to international standards to maintain trading partner confidence.
With disease outbreaks showing no respect for borders and trade disruptions mounting worldwide, the window for coordinated international action appears to be narrowing rapidly.
