PODCAST | A barometer on the financial pressures of 2026

Listen to this podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Podbean, Podtail, ListenNotes, TuneIn

The past year dealt with extremes. Unprecedented geopolitical turmoil came alongside breakneck digital advancement, and the worries and priorities of financial institutions are shifting accordingly.

Allianz Trade’s 2026 Risk Barometer identifies the 10 most pressing concerns faced by corporates for the year ahead, encompassing the views of 3,338 risk management experts, spanning 97 countries and territories.  

Doğa Usanmaz, Reporter at Trade Finance Global (TFG), sat down with Sarah Murrow, President and CEO of Allianz Trade Americas, to discuss these changes. 

They unpacked the most prominent financial pressures that will preoccupy the minds of corporates and financial institutions alike in 2026, their knock-on effects, and potential strategies to build resilience across supply chains. 

Risk and financial access: An unholy alliance

Risk and financial access are inextricably linked. Access to financing is frequently determined by a client’s risk profile, defined by their credit history and their ability to absorb additional costs. 

Analysis underpinning the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) trade finance gap, which continues to sit at an uncomfortable $2.5 trillion, highlights how the second biggest reason for rejection is that the client comes from an “unacceptable country or counterparty risk profile.” 

Therefore, risk doesn’t just concern banks or companies in building response mechanisms for potential disruptions: it directly informs whether a company will receive financing at all, often disproportionately impacting emerging markets. 

“When uncertainty increases, we typically see liquidity tightening, payment terms shortening, and credit standards becoming more stringent,” said Murrow. “This is really where trade credit insurance can play a big hand in offering relief to businesses, as well as financial institutions.”

Credit insurance protects against the risk that a buyer fails to pay an invoice, allowing international trade to operate amid unpredictability. Because insurers cover the risk of non-payment, banks can hold or finance a larger volume of invoices with the same capital, thereby increasing their lending capacity. 

For Murrow, the most concrete example of trade credit insurance acting as a remedy for tightened credit at times of uncertainty came during the COVID Pandemic. Governments, such as the UK’s, established trade credit reinsurance schemes aimed at aiding economic recovery following the downturn triggered by the Pandemic.  

In the UK government’s case, the scheme operated through reinsurance agreements between the UK government and participating insurers: the government covered around 90% of insurers’ claims losses in return for a premium and adherence to conduct rules.

“Trade credit insurance policies make risk quantifiable and transferable, which is really unique in its solution,” emphasised Murrow.

Political violence: The seventh biggest risk

When COVID first broke out, fear, led by an unprecedented global shutdown, dominated financial markets. However, even though the pandemic eventually faded into a distant memory, the much-anticipated move toward normalcy remains out of reach. 

The last few years have seen wars, natural catastrophes, and aggressive trade policies that threaten human livelihoods. Geopolitical tensions escalate daily, and ‘political risk and violence’ has climbed the Risk Barometer in accordance, reaching an all-time high of seventh position in the rankings.

However, it’s crucial to determine whether this shift is driven by speculation or an actual increase in violence. “The big concern with political risk and violence for businesses is business interruption of any sort,” explained Murrow. Pointing to the ACLED Conflict Index, “actual conflicts have remained steady over the past 12 months,” she said. 

Yet, in spite of the seeming stability, the levels of political turbulence experienced recently are more than there have been in the last decade. 

“Businesses have been operating in an environment of sustained geopolitical fragmentation, including regional conflicts, trade restrictions, and sanctions regimes,” said Murrow. “These all have direct impacts on supply chains and payments.”

For exporters, political risk has evolved from an abstract concept to a tangible one, manifesting in delayed payments and transfers.

Cybersecurity: The most pressing concern

As governments invest in security, corporates grow concerned about cybersecurity. Trade and technology are becoming increasingly intertwined, and cybersecurity has moved from the mere protection of data into a key pillar in protecting the flow of goods and services across borders. 

This could be why cybersecurity topped the Risk Barometer for the fifth year running. “Within the world of trade credit, cyber events are likely to trigger payment disruptions and liquidity stress rather than just data loss,” said Murrow. 

However, what remains questionable is why it continues to rank as the top concern, even as the last few years have seen growing investment in protective measures. The European Union’s (EU) NIS2 Directive, the US’ Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act (CIRCIA), and the UK’s Cyber Security and Resilience Bill all serve as legislation that enhance risk management in cybersecurity. 

For Murrow, the issue is that digitalisation grows at a much faster pace than legislation does, making it difficult for governments to keep up with the rapidly evolving cyber-attacks. “Even as controls improve, which they have in great strides over the past few years, the systematic impact of a successful cyber-attack reaches further now than it ever has,” she said. 

It is also important to recognise that the countries and blocs that have made progress in cybersecurity tend to be Western superpowers with access to the necessary infrastructure and information. Developing countries often lack the investment capabilities and the technical literacy to successfully protect their data: and data is the real power source for a digital transformation.

Preparing for the unknown

For corporates and financial institutions to survive 2026, risk needs to breed resilience. However, amid this volatility, the Risk Barometer shows that only 3% of global supply chains are seen as ‘very resilient’. 

Murrow emphasised that for this number to grow, we must first reckon with the reality that businesses design their supply chains, not for resilience, but for efficiency and profitability.

However, she also highlighted that there is growing interest among businesses in understanding credit risk in their supply chains – the potential for financial loss, arising from a supplier’s inability to deliver. 

A recent trend in supply chains in the past year is their diversification. With newly-signed free trade agreements (FTAs) and reignited critical minerals partnerships, countries are rewiring their supply chains. Many are driven by the goal to de-risk from China, a prominent global supplier with high-perceived political risk. 

“The diversification of supply chains is the necessity to optimise business performance and margins in the time of sanctions and tariffs,” said Murrow. “I think that businesses have diversification in mind as the best practice to build resilience.”

From eighth to second: AI’s lead change

AI’s jump from eighth to second place in the Barometer rankings in just one year draws attention to the possibility of dark horses when it comes to risk. For Murrow, concentration is one of these dark horses. Around 40% of global trade is ‘concentrated’, which means importing countries are reliant on three or fewer trading partners for this share of global trade. 

“This is driven by things like nearshoring and digital transformation, in an effort to boost operational efficiency,” said Murrow. “Obviously, with concentration, it creates dependency, which increases risk.”

The other major, unnoticed risk for Murrow is the knock-on effects of existing risks. A cyber-attack can lead to financial stress, a geopolitical conflict can disrupt payments, and AI failures can burden compliance. 

Risks are becoming more intertwined, and isolated incidents are getting increasingly rare. 

—

Amid changing risks, the role of trade credit insurance is evolving. Political risk is rising in priority, credit risk is growing as a topic of conversation, and trade credit insurance is morphing into a strategic risk management solution. 

In her own words, Murrow approaches 2026 with optimism, albeit a healthy dose of caution. “I think despite all the risks and the volatility we’ve seen over the past year, what we’ve seen is that businesses adapt,” she said. They have demonstrated resilience instead of retreating.”