Russia expands into East Africa

Russia is expanding trade and energy partnerships with Tanzania and Ethiopia, as EU sanctions and India’s shift away from Russian oil squeeze its traditional export markets.
Bilateral trade with both East African nations has surged, with cooperation spanning fertilisers, hydrocarbons, digital commerce, and major industrial investments such as a $1 billion aluminium plant in Ethiopia.
Alongside economic ties, Russia is deepening its military footprint in Africa, increasing arms sales and recruiting African nationals to fight in Ukraine.

On Monday, 9 February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Tanzanian counterpart Mahmoud Thabit met in Moscow to discuss the deepening trade and energy relations between the two states.

Such diplomacy is designed to strengthen Russia’s foothold in East Africa, particularly as the European Union (EU) and India move away from Russian energy products.

Trade between Russia and Tanzania increased by 20% in 2025. Russia is one of Tanzania’s five largest fertiliser suppliers, as well as a prominent supplier of aluminium; Tanzania, in return, exports agricultural products to Russia, including coffee, tea, and tobacco.

The recent meeting drew attention to potential collaboration in long-term energy projects. “We know that Tanzania is interested in establishing gas exports. Large Russian companies are ready for any kind of cooperation,” said Maxim Reshetnikov, the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.

“We are talking about joint projects in the field of production and export of hydrocarbons and natural gas and the joint construction of a coal-fired thermal power plant,” he added.

North of Tanzania, trade between Ethiopia and Russia almost tripled in 2025. Bilateral trade between Russia and Ethiopia surged in the past year as well, surpassing $435 million. Energy equipment, machinery, and fertilisers were the primary Russian exports, while Russian imports of Ethiopian coffee more than doubled from 2024 to 2025, gaining popularity among Russian consumers.

Cooperation between the two countries is also spilling over into digital commerce, as Ethiopia eases regulations for Russian businesses. “The entry of Russian tech companies into the Ethiopian market is no longer theoretical,” said Evgeny Terekhin, Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia.

These developments follow major industrial moves from Russia as well, with Russian aluminium producer Rusal signing a $1 billion deal to build an aluminium plant in Ethiopia back in November 2025.

Russia’s expansion into the East African market, particularly in the energy sphere, comes after resistance from the international trading community has caused Russian exports to fall to close to the 1990 levels, the final years of the Soviet Union.

EU sanctions on Russia were updated last week, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a statement outlining the new measures expected to be implemented on 24 February.

The measures include the introduction of a full maritime ban on Russian crude oil, efforts to “make it more difficult” for Russia to acquire oil tankers, measures against cryptocurrencies and their trade, new bans on specific exports like rubber, tractors, and cybersecurity, and bans on metal, chemical, and critical mineral imports.

The recently introduced Regulation (EU) 2026/261 also outlaws the import of pipeline gas and liquified natural gas (LNG) from Russia, and aims to gradually eliminate Russian fossil fuel exports to the EU.

India, a major importer of Russian oil, is in the midst of finalising a trade deal with the US, which would involve it purchasing $500 billion worth of energy and technology products, and, for US President Donald Trump, fully eliminating its purchases of Russian oil. In 2025, India was the second biggest buyer of Russian oil.

At the same time, exports accounted for only 17.85% of Russia’s GDP last year, down by almost 5% from the year before. India’s divergence from Russia and the EU’s severe sanctions pose a significant challenge for Russian exports, potentially driving this expansion into East Africa.

In addition to deepening trade and energy ties, Russia is increasingly reliant on the region for military strength, increasing its arms sales in Africa in 2024 and recruiting Africans to fight in Ukraine. Just two days ago, Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi called out Russia for its use of Kenyan citizens fighting in Ukraine. The Kenyan government estimates that 200 Kenyans have been recruited for the war by Russia. “We have seen loss of lives, and I am planning to make a visit to Moscow so that we can emphasise this is something that needs to be arrested,” said Mudavadi.