An HSBC report published today has found that, after months of uncertainty, businesses are finally becoming more confident in dealing with trade policy despite facing increased costs and cash flow pressures.

The second edition of HSBC’s Global Trade Pulse Survey reveals a very different picture from that seen six months ago, when the widespread uncertainty around tariffs was feared to grind global trade to a halt. Now, two-thirds of global business leaders have more certainty about the effects of trade policy on their company than they did six months ago, and their predictions of the negative impact of supply chain disruptions on revenue shrank significantly. 

Businesses are adapting to the new situation and confidently implementing changes like increased efficiency and AI automation to adapt, with 84% of those surveyed reporting they are planning to diversify suppliers and revenue streams or have already done so. 

This effect is more pronounced for companies with revenues over $2 billion, 44% of whom have already taken action to diversify, compared to 37% of smaller businesses. 

Half of the companies surveyed are planning to enter new markets, and almost as many are looking at mergers or acquisitions in response to trade uncertainty. Europe and Southeast Asia emerged as the top destinations for supply chain expansion, while 22% of businesses plan to reduce their reliance on North America and 16% on South America. 

Uneven preparedness levels across regions and sectors may hinder growth, while rising costs and working capital pressures are turning banks into increasingly central players in global trade. 

Companies’ vulnerability to changes in trade regulation varies widely, with half of respondents in the US feeling well-informed and prepared compared to just 20% in Hong Kong and Italy. Goods-focused businesses are more exposed to revenue shocks resulting from trade uncertainty, with 42% experiencing a negative impact on revenues in the last six months and 55% expecting one in the next six months. In contrast, just 26% of services-focused companies have had their exports negatively impacted. 

About two-thirds of respondents expected increased costs over the next six months due to tariffs and trade uncertainty, a figure that was similar across sectors. However, while tariffs play a central role in cost increases, especially in Southeast Asia and the US, other factors are also driving up costs, such as increased shipping costs and rising supplier prices. 

Increased costs have led to a rising need for working capital: 62% of respondents reported an increasing need for working capital in 2025, with the direst need felt by businesses in the US and India and in the technology, media, and telecommunications sector. Remarkably, bigger companies reported being more vulnerable to cash flow issues, with 20% facing serious liquidity issues this year compared to just 15% of smaller companies. While nearly 90% of those surveyed think banks will become increasingly important to their businesses in the next few years, 66% have turned to alternative financing due to funding gaps, highlighting the growing need for flexible financing. 

Overall, a strong 88% of businesses are confident in their ability to grow international trade in the next two years, with larger businesses more likely to be optimistic. 

“Improving sentiment shows that businesses are responding effectively to ongoing trade shifts and demonstrating strong resilience,” said Vivek Ramachandran, Head of Global Trade Solutions at HSBC. 

“Improved clarity over trade and tariffs has emboldened businesses to plan ahead, with many seeing international trade not as a risk, but as an opportunity to reinvent.”