- Geopolitical instability is severely hindering global shipping decarbonisation, delaying emission reduction goals by up to 50 years.
- Conflicts such as those in the Middle East and Russia have changed shipping routes and raised emissions, reversing progress towards carbon neutrality.
- Rising global uncertainty is causing nations to prioritise economic resilience over environmental goals, weakening commitment to shipping decarbonisation.
Global conflict and geopolitical instability are significantly hindering the decarbonisation of the global shipping industry by increasing shipping emissions and forcing countries affected to abandon sustainability goals in favour of economic efficiency, according to a paper published yesterday in Nature.
Global shipping makes up around 3% of global yearly emissions; the current goal, outlined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in a 2023 strategy, is to reach zero carbon emissions “by or around” 2050. 5 to 10% of energy used in shipping is targeted to be carbon neutral by 2030.
However, conflicts like those in the Middle East and Russia exert a “substantial and statistically significant negative impact” on the global effort to reduce shipping emissions, potentially delaying the IMO goals by up to 50 years.
The climate goals entail using private and public investment to make the global shipping industry more energy efficient and massively increase the use of zero-emissions fuels, like hydrogen, methane, or ammonia. The paper finds that these sustainability goals become deprioritised in investment when a region is directly or indirectly affected by geopolitical instability. At the same time, the direct effects of conflicts on global trade routes are increasing the overall mileage of global shipping, further slowing the decarbonisation effort.
Source: Zhao et al, 2025
For example, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, compounded with the Nord Stream pipeline blast that same year – believed to be connected to the conflict – led to a 1.5% increase in global shipping emissions, according to the paper.
This effect was present across all major global shipping routes; furthermore, as it was being repaired, energy shipments were increased to compensate for the pipeline’s diminished capacity.. Sanctions and disrupted fuel corridors further delayed fuel reduction strategies, according to a 2024 paper by Hoffart et al.
In the Middle East, attacks in the Red Sea related to the Israel-Palestine conflict led most container ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 6,500 km and up to 12 days to the journey. Carbon emissions from vessels transiting the Cape increased by over 60% in a six-month period as a result, raising total shipping emissions by 1.4 tonnes compared to the same period the previous year.
Geopolitical risk has changed how individual nations prioritise competing political and economic goals. When countries perceive a high level of uncertainty, they pivot away from environmental goals and towards economic and supply chain resilience, putting decarbonisation on the back burner.
The paper estimates that “a unit increase in geopolitical risk corresponds to a 14.38% reduction in national decarbonisation willingness.” This spells trouble for the future of shipping decarbonisation: a range of reports on geopolitical risk this year find that global uncertainty is only set to rise in the next few years, with the top risks of 2025 – “armed conflict, extreme weather events, and geoeconomic confrontation” – remaining a concern in the foreseeable future.
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2025
While the main findings of the report – that immediate geopolitical threats lead to the postponement of sustainability goals – will hardly come as a surprise to anyone, the extent of the impact paints a sobering picture. As a result, the global shipping industry must come together and work even harder than planned to decarbonise in the face of shifting trade routes and priorities.
