2026 commodities outlook: The year to come

As 2026 approaches, commodity and energy markets remain busy, complex and full of moving parts. The recent years’ volatility has dampened but hasn’t disappeared, and neither has opportunity. 

 If you look hard enough, 2026’s key trends are already visible – across desks, risk teams and operations. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they all point towards a market that rewards clarity, responsiveness and reliable information. 

While the usual suspects – tech, green energy, political instability – will remain key themes in the year to come, 2026 may bring some surprise turns with it too. Here’s what’s in store this year in the commodities and energy trading space.

Political factors will continue to influence trading conditions

It’s no secret that geopolitical developments have always had an impact on commodities. From Iraqi tanks in Kuwait city sending oil prices soaring in the 1990s, as is vividly depicted in the commodity trading classic The World for Sale, to the recent events in Venezuela reshaping supply chains far beyond the confines of the war, wars and sanctions have remained constant drivers of commodities flows. 

The difference in recent years has been the speed and frequency of the changes. Tariffs are introduced and withdrawn with little warning, regional conflicts alter trade routes overnight, and supply chains that once shifted slowly can now move within days.

While this backdrop can be difficult to navigate, it is not solely a source of risk. Many trading organisations are becoming better at dealing with uncertainty, as long as they clearly understand their positions and exposure. The real constraint is not geopolitics itself, but the delay between an external event and an internal response.

In 2026, firms will continue to focus on shortening that gap: improving the speed at which they access their own data, getting information in a format that can be trusted, and being able to run impact assessments at short notice. The conditions may not be calmer, but the ability to react to them can and will become stronger.

Electrification will shape demand

The transition towards electric vehicles (EVs) – powered both by tightening regulations and increasing global consumer demand – has already altered demand for several commodities. 

With new limits on emissions in the UK and Europe starting in November 2026 and a growing Chinese EV market, this trend looks set to continue. Metals such as lithium and nickel, once peripheral to many portfolios, have become increasingly central. Their markets are still evolving, with new participants, new supply routes, and pricing behaviours that differ from traditional bulk commodities.

Alongside these metals is the continued need for copper. National charging networks, power system reinforcements, and grid upgrades require a substantial amount of cabling and equipment. 

Even modest increases in electrification translate into more demand for copper, which the UN expects to grow by 40% just in the next 15 years. 2026 is likely to see further pressure in this area.

These shifts are not disruptive in the sense of replacing existing markets – more demand for copper does not mean less demand for grain, say – but they do add layers of complexity. Traditional energy commodities, industrial metals, and newer battery materials will become intertwined in ways that require traders to monitor several moving parts at once.

Power markets become more variable

Renewable energy continues to grow its share of the market, projected to reach 30% globally by 2030.. While this is positive in many respects, it introduces variability that fossil fuel systems did not have. A quiet period for wind or a sudden surge can influence prices across several regions. Storage helps, but its capacity remains limited relative to the size of the global energy system.

Battery technology is improving, and more large-scale storage facilities are being built. However, the overall market still has to work around periods of high and low output. In 2026, this will mean that those able to track supply-demand imbalances quickly and understand the wider knock-on effects will be in a better position to act when opportunities arise.

However, don’t count out the volatility in oil and gas markets. Demand has not curtailed as much as predictions (even ours!) have made in the past and supply chains are just as impacted by geopolitical events.

Artificial intelligence gains momentum but stays grounded

Artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to attract interest, as it has memorably done in the past few years, but the strongest value in 2026 is likely to come from modest, practical improvements rather than ambitious claims. 

Many firms are focusing on automating tasks that were previously manual, such as identifying unusual patterns in trading behaviour, reviewing large data sets for anomalies, or reducing the administrative workload that slows down operations.

AI is well-suited to these areas because it can work with large volumes of information and highlight areas that merit a closer look. It is less effective when required to deliver a single definitive answer with no margin for error. For that reason, 2026 will be shaped by realistic use cases – those that improve reliability and reduce effort rather than attempting to automate human judgment.

Governance and responsibility become important questions

As AI adoption grows, so does attention to its limitations. Firms will increasingly ask who owns the data models they rely on, who is accountable when an output is wrong, and how AI systems should be managed. These questions are not designed to slow innovation, but to ensure that the technology is being used sensibly and safely.

This area is still developing: organisations will spend more time in 2026 considering how to implement controls, how to document the use of AI in their workflows, and how to satisfy the expectations of regulators. Clear governance will become just as important as technical accuracy.

Digitisation continues with varied progress

While the transition away from paper documents is slowly powering on, one of the quieter but most significant challenges in commodities is the persistence of ‘paper era’ processes. Many traders still rely on scanned documents, emailed PDFs, and information being re-entered manually. These methods work, but they slow everything down and make it harder to ensure that everyone involved is working from the same dataset.

Industry efforts around electronic invoicing and fully digital documents are gathering pace. Adoption will not happen overnight, but 2026 will likely see more firms moving beyond scanned paperwork and towards systems that generate and exchange structured information. The benefits are straightforward: fewer errors, faster reconciliation, and more confidence in the data.

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Taken together, these developments point to a market that rewards organisations able to respond quickly and reliably. No company can control tariffs, the weather or sudden shifts in demand – but they can reduce the delay between an event and a decision.

In 2026, the complexity of the market is not going away, but the tools to handle it are improving, and those who make use of them will be well placed to act with confidence.