Striving for frictionless trade amid volatility: How digital platforms can help

Structural pressures on global trade continue to intensify in 2026. Tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, cybersecurity threats, liquidity shifts, and rapid digitalisation are reshaping the trade finance landscape.

Against this backdrop, digital trade finance platforms are being tested not only on efficiency, but on resilience – particularly in developing markets where access to financing remains fragile.

Trade Finance Global’s (TFG) Doga Usanmaz spoke to Amelia Ng, CEO of digital trade finance platform Olea, to discuss emerging risks and opportunities, the evolution of South-South trade, and how artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain are reshaping digital trade finance.

Doga Usanmaz (DU): What are some of the emerging challenges in global trade this year?

Amelia Ng (AN): I would classify them into four areas, though they are interconnected.

The first is tariffs, but it’s less about tariffs alone and more about their unpredictability. If tariffs increase in a stable, predictable way, companies can plan. What makes it challenging is the sudden shifts. Businesses struggle when policies change quickly and planning becomes difficult.

The second is geopolitical tension. When tensions escalate, they create operational and compliance challenges. For example, vessels travelling through sensitive maritime regions may be advised to switch off their tracking systems. If that happens, it becomes very difficult to verify where goods have actually travelled. Goods might be declared as originating from a non-sanctioned country but could have passed through a sanctioned region. For institutional-grade platforms that prioritise compliance, this creates real difficulty.

The third is logistical disruption. Rerouting around sensitive areas has increased shipping times. For example, trade from China to Europe can take 10 to 14 days longer. Even a one- or two-day delay can affect shipment timing and when suppliers require payment.

Finally, cybersecurity is becoming increasingly relevant. As global trade becomes more digitalised, cyber risks may seem unrelated to buying and selling goods, but they are not. Even short port outages can delay shipments and affect payment cycles. At the moment, the disruption is manageable, but it’s something we cannot ignore.

DU: How does increased volatility disproportionately impact developing markets?

AN: One key factor is liquidity. Over 90% of global trade relies on trade finance, and that depends on where liquidity comes from. Traditionally, banks have been the main providers. Over the past five years, we’ve seen increasing participation from private credit funds backed by large financial sponsors.

However, last year, there was a high-profile industry impropriety involving double financing in supply chain finance. As a result, two US funders told us they were pausing liquidity, not because of us or the asset class itself, but because of market sentiment.

When Western financial markets experience volatility, it directly affects exporters in Asia and other developing markets. While private credit investors are taking on some risk from the Western buyers, through platforms like ours, they are effectively supporting exporters in developing economies, enabling early payments, and sustaining cross-border trade.

That said, I remain cautiously optimistic. Exporters and importers are becoming more sophisticated in managing shocks. Rather than simple near-shoring, what we are seeing is more complex supply chains, sourcing raw materials from multiple countries, assembling semi-finished goods elsewhere, and finishing products in another location.

DU: The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD), recently released their predictions for 2026, one of which is that there’s going to be a rise in South-South trade. Are we going to be seeing that?

AN: Yes, we are already seeing that trend since last year.

From our vantage point, intra-Asia flows have been growing strongly. China-India trade continues to expand, and we are seeing increasing Singapore-China flows as well.

We are also seeing growth in Asia-Latin America corridors. Asia-Mexico is well established, but other routes are deepening too. For example, direct China-Argentina connectivity has improved, and that supports trade growth.

As connectivity improves and trade routes diversify, businesses naturally follow those opportunities.

DU: How do technologies like AI and tokenisation create new cross-border opportunities?

AN: AI has two fundamental impacts for us. 

The first is significantly reducing cost-to-serve. Trade finance requires sanctions screening, document verification, and fraud checks. Without automation, the operational cost is very high. AI helps automate document extraction and risk checks, allowing us to serve smaller-ticket small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that would otherwise be too costly to finance.

The second is predictive risk management. Trade finance depends on confidence, whether financing is safe. AI enhances our ability to assess and manage risk. We’re still scratching the surface, but it is already making a meaningful difference.

On blockchain, we are progressing step by step. We have tokenised trade assets using a private blockchain infrastructure, and we’ve partnered with Circle Internet Group to explore stablecoin-based settlements. Incubated by SC Ventures, we have also collaborated with ecosystem ventures such as SWIAT to enable trade financing on the blockchain via SWIAT’s Tokenisation Engine.

If you look at trade finance, there are three flows beyond the physical goods: information flow, document flow, and money flow. Blockchain can handle those flows. The market is not fully there yet, but we are preparing for that future. The real power will come when the ecosystem becomes interoperable end-to-end.

DU: Can digital trade platforms help include businesses left in the margins of global trade, or do they also risk widening the gaps between those who can afford to pay for additional capital and those still at early stages of development?

AN: I believe the benefits are significant, but partnership is important.

There is a risk that SMEs that are not digitally savvy could be left behind. Governments and institutions need to help bring businesses up to speed in the digital era.

On the positive side, we are implementing programmes that connect directly to digital buyer databases, particularly in electronic commerce ecosystems. With automation and systematic risk assessment running 24/7, we can efficiently finance millions of smaller sellers.

Importantly, financing decisions can be based on sales performance and legal frameworks, not just traditional financial statements or collateral. If implemented well, the benefits are substantial.

DU: How do financial institutions and private equity firms support digital trade finance platforms and build resilience in the trade economy?

AN: Around 30% of Olea’s liquidity comes from private credit.

Private credit investors tend to be more flexible and often more progressive in relying on data patterns rather than purely traditional financial statements. They have an appetite for structured working capital solutions, provided the risk is well managed.

Their continued support in working capital financing is critical in enabling more SMEs to conduct cross-border trade.

DU: How do digital platforms support sustainable trade?

AN: Sustainable trade goes beyond ESG metrics.

We have a strong conviction that trade itself supports sustainable economic development. If we can provide transparent and efficient financing to smaller sellers, that contributes to broader economic resilience.

For example, we are working on programmes to support up to a million small sellers on digital platforms. By providing funders with transparency, such as real-time data on performance trends, we build confidence. That confidence allows capital to flow to smaller enterprises.

We are also exploring impact-based initiatives, such as potentially offering differentiated pricing for women-led enterprises. However, reliable data classification remains a challenge, and we are working carefully through that process.