Whilst it may feel like the world has already moved on, the Israel–Iran conflict in June served as a stark reminder of how geopolitical instability can rapidly unsettle global energy markets and supply chains. Thankfully, matters did not escalate further, but the potential consequences had things worsened should not be overlooked.
In June 2025, Israel’s strikes on Iranian targets and Iran’s retaliatory attacks sent shockwaves through global logistics networks. Brent crude jumped more than 10%, airlines rerouted flights to avoid conflict zones, and the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure – which would have halted a fifth of the world’s oil flows – sparked volatility across energy markets.
Freight costs surged while regional shipping faced delays. A ceasefire on 24 June steadied markets, but the episode underscored just how fragile supply chains remain in the face of geopolitical disruption.
The immediate impact
When geopolitical tensions reached their peak in the aftermath of the attacks, Brent crude, a major global benchmark for oil pricing, saw spot prices rising from $69.65 per barrel on 12 June – the day before Israel launched attacks on Iranian targets – to $77.32 by 19 June. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also climbed 11% during the same period.
Diesel prices spiked even faster, climbing 15% globally. While some European markets such as Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary saw more moderate diesel price increases of 5–7%, the underlying message was clear: energy shocks ripple faster than supply chains can adapt.
For the logistics sector, the immediate financial hit was manageable, but the warning signs were unmistakable.
The counterfactual: What if it had escalated?
Had hostilities deepened, the consequences for global trade could have been profound.
A disruption of Gulf shipping routes would have sharply constrained energy flows to Europe and Asia. At the same time, air and land transport networks across the region would have been largely incapacitated by heightened security risks. Fuel prices could have skyrocketed further, driving cost inflation across shipping, road transport, aviation, and manufacturing worldwide.
A prolonged conflict could have eaten further into margins for businesses already facing immense pressure. With higher fuel costs and fewer direct routes available, global logistics businesses – often small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and one-man bands – would have been even more stretched and under even greater financial strain.
The episode in the Middle East also highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Although flows were uninterrupted, the potential closure of this vital chokepoint, which handles 20% of global oil exports and 21% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, would have sent prices soaring and disrupted supply chains far beyond the Gulf.
From electronics in Asia to consumer goods in Europe, delays would have stretched supply chains to the limit. Businesses would have scrambled for alternative routes and inventory buffers, while financing pressures and liquidity risks in the logistics sector could have escalated into a systemic crisis. In short, the world avoided a major shock.
Preparing for the next shock
The next shock didn’t come before long, with the recent Israeli strike in Doha uncovering a new layer of geopolitical risk for the global LNG market.
With Qatar supplying nearly 20% of global LNG, even the perception of risk in Doha reverberates across markets, nudging up premiums and unsettling long-term planning. For those dependent on the Qatari energy supply, the real impact is not necessarily disruption, but the extra premium markets may now attach to security, insurance, and long-term contracts.
In an LNG market already stretched by demand, recent events in the Gulf have highlighted that having access to a European LNG network agile enough to withstand geopolitical tremors isn’t just advisable, but essential.
The lesson here is not that markets bounce back quickly, but that companies cannot afford complacency. Preparation matters, and companies must take scenario planning seriously, stress-testing logistics and financing models against future oil and imported diesel price shocks, route disruptions and complete closures. Businesses also need to diversify their supply chains, securing alternative transport options and developing more flexible inventory strategies that can absorb shocks.
Equally, accelerating the energy transition is essential.
Recent geopolitical events have also reinforced that end-users, our customers, ultimately bear the brunt of energy price spikes. The shocks further highlighted the urgent need to invest in scaling alternative fuel markets and green energies such as HVO, bio LNG and vehicle electrification to reduce our ingrained dependency on imported fuels.
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A resilient, diversified energy strategy is as much about competitiveness, security and resilience as it is about accelerating the green transition.
Therefore, it is crucial for all industries to take a holistic approach to decarbonisation, offering customers solutions to comply with climate targets while optimising cost efficiency. The June conflict is just the latest reminder that resilience and sustainability are intrinsically linked.
For the logistics sector, the choice is clear: prepare now, or be caught off guard when the next shock hits.
