The survey, conducted across approximately 4,500 companies in nine countries (China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK, and the US), reveals that close to 60% of firms expect negative impacts from the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025.

“Businesses around the world have sprung into action to adjust to shifting trade conditions. Around a third have already found new markets for exports and supply, while many of the rest are planning to do so,” said Sarah Murrow, CEO of Allianz Trade in UK and Ireland and Trade Finance Global (TFG) Editorial Board Member. 

“Diversifying supply chains and customer bases is an enduring risk mitigation strategy, so retaining adaptability and boosting resilience will be key to success as companies seek out new markets for growth.”

Despite the recent US-China agreement, Allianz Trade estimates that global export losses could reach $305 billion in 2025 and $291 billion in 2026. China faces potential export losses of up to $108 billion (0.5% of GDP), primarily in machinery and equipment ($20 billion), household appliances ($18 billion) and computers and telecommunications ($9.5 billion).

The European Union (EU) is expected to lose $33 billion in exports, with Germany most exposed at $9 billion, particularly in machinery and equipment ($1.9 billion) and automotive manufacturing ($1.6 billion). Other Asian economies, including Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, will also suffer significant impacts across key sectors.

In response to the challenging trade environment, strategies have diverged by region, investment strategies have diverged notably by region, with Chinese firms predominantly pursuing diversification whilst European counterparts focus on efficiency and cost control. 

Confidence is key

Exporters’ confidence has plummeted, with only 40% now expecting positive export growth, down from 80% before the trade conflict intensified. A striking 42% of companies now anticipate turnover declines of between 2% and 10% over the next year, compared to fewer than 5% prior to Liberation Day.

Chinese exporters reported the sharpest deterioration in sentiment, with 72% expecting export revenue declines in 2025, followed by Poland (51%) and Singapore (48%). Nearly one-third of companies indicated they intend to stop imports or offshore production to avoid delays or increased costs, while 27% said they might temporarily halt production as currency volatility exacerbates tariff costs. Companies with significant exposure to offshore production or suppliers in Asia have reported particularly acute pessimism, with approximately half now forecasting downturns.

In terms of sectors, more than two-thirds (67%) of wholesale and trade sector firms have emerged as particularly pessimistic. Companies generating over half their turnover from exports have likewise downgraded revenue forecasts substantially, with 51% now anticipating declines.

This shaken confidence has led German businesses towards cost-cutting measures, with 45% now prioritising operational efficiency compared with 34% before Liberation Day. French (38%) and American firms (33%) are following similar approaches.

By contrast, Chinese companies have dramatically increased their commitment to diversification and strategic capital expenditure, with 77% pursuing this approach compared with 58% before the tariff escalation. British (60%) and Spanish firms (50%) have likewise embraced expansion strategies, albeit less aggressively.

The point of this sentiment, of market reactions to US President Donald Trump’s every word, translates to investment. A murky future outlook does not bode well for a healthy investment ecosystem.

Opportunity for LatAm

As firms seek to access US markets at a lower cost, the Latin America (LatAm) region has emerged as an appealing option for business. Before and after Liberation Day, Chinese firms’ interest (perception of export opportunities) has increased from 5% to 15%; for European firms, interest has increased from 4% to 10%.

Source: Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025

Across sectors, interest in LatAm increased, though to differing extents:

• For energy sector respondents, the share grew by 14 percentage points from 4% to 18%; for mining, the share grew from 6% to 19%.
• Manufacturing was up from 4% to 9%.
• Agriculture was up from 5% to 9%.

The region has entered into closer commercial agreements with both the EU and China as a result of their mineral wealth.

In early 2025, the EU finalised a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the MERCOSUR bloc—comprising Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia—after 25 years of negotiations. This agreement eliminates over 90% of tariffs on goods exchanged between the two blocs, potentially saving EU companies around €4 billion annually in duties. The deal also facilitates access to critical raw materials essential for Europe’s green technologies, such as nickel, copper, and lithium.

Similarly, China has signed FTAs with Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Nicaragua. Negotiations are ongoing with Uruguay, despite MERCOSUR’s rules against individual member agreements. Countries like Bolivia, Venezuela, and Uruguay have joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), leading to substantial infrastructure investments, including the Chancay Mega-port in Peru.

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As most exporters around the world (86%) expect to reshore some or most production or switch to domestic supply as a result of the trade war, the months ahead could see offshore production evolve in ways unprecedented even for these volatile times. 

While comprehensive, this survey’s sample size lacks geographical diversity. Nonetheless, the firms surveyed have supply chains worldwide and can thereby give a useful indication of how tariffs will impact emerging markets, particularly in the LatAm region.

Beyond more holistic conclusions, the Survey makes clear that firms will be pushing costs onto others, which will likely be felt by the consumer as prices go up.