In Global Financial Integrity’s 2019 update “Illicit Financial Flows to and from 148 Developing Countries 2006 – 2015” the estimate of illicit outflows of trade related payments from developing economies for 2015 alone was counted in the hundreds of billions – greater in value in fact than the aid budgets flowing into those countries.
Over the past few weeks, trade spats have shaken global markets. Worldwide, trade conflicts are being borne of political rather than economic woes — is this the new normal?
There is, so far as I am aware, little or no precedent for what the UK is attempting to do: seeking to reduce unfettered access to its closest and most important market – which also happens to be one of the world’s two largest. In 2018, 46% of the UK’s exports went to the EU, and 54% of UK imports came from it. Almost all countries in the world try to make trade deals, not dismantle them.
Specialist intelligence company EXX Africa’s director Robert Besseling assesses that African governments are increasingly integrating infrastructure investment options into a more competitive landscape that seeks to bridge the massive annual financing gap. However, accomplishing sustained economic growth, meeting revenue collection targets, and achieving positive indicators will be required to balance growing debt levels and record fiscal expansionism.
The pound had a rocky August as the October 31st Brexit deadline drew nearer and the ongoing drama of Brexit intensified. Prime Minister Boris Johnson rocked the pound by staying firm on the path to leave without a deal if nothing was agreed by the 31st October
The volume of space dedicated to ‘trade wars’ in the past few months is vast. But this does not guarantee the subject has been properly examined and analysed. I would like to suggest another perspective, questioning some common assumptions.
A trade war is unlikely to turn into a currency war, and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar should stabilize and be slightly lower than it was before the trade war. However, this situation is not what the United States wants to see, and how it will develop still needs to be observed to further respond to the depreciation of the RMB.
In July the pound continued its march lower as markets prepared for the prospect of a PM who would be more aligned with a no-deal Brexit outcome
The value of global trade today is around $40 trillion. Approximately 10% of this amount is commodity trade. Therefore being able to predict what is likely for the future of the trade industry to hold is essential for business growth and preparation. Some of the most influential factors on global trade today are
Boy Scouts and Girl Guides have the motto “be prepared.” This can also apply for currency. TFG heard from AFEX’s Trevor Charsley on the latest US dollar updates, including jawboning the dollar, and monetary easing from the ECB.
Boris Johnson has now formally accepted the Queen’s invitation to form a government. TFG heard from leaders in trade, treasury, export and finance.
The Brexit calamity continues, as Boris Johnson takes to No 10 Downing Street following the Conservative Party Ballot Paper result, taking strategic control of the UK government.
The pound continues to weaken as talk of a no-deal outcome heats up and uncertainty continues. The fact is, we’re no closer to any resolution than when Theresa May resigned, and the 31st October is rapidly approaching.
The month of May marked the end of British Prime Minister ‘May’, and was ultimately about continuations of previous stories and themes, the outcome of the European Elections and the start of the Conservative leadership race.
Facebook recently announced a “blockchain powered currency” called Libra which appears to be a potentially game changing development in payments. Although there is scepticism and uncertainty, Facebook’s Libra initiative is something to be encouraged and applauded. With the caveat that FB needs to be watched very carefully as it has over the years proclaimed in its various mission statements that it wants to “move fast, break things, build things and add stable infrastructure”.